Sentiment Scares CEOs. There is a reason that economists measure consumer sentiment. The feeling of optimism or pessimism affects everything from market share and price, or in this case value. Pure analysts would say that oil companies are undervalued, Exxon trades at 18x but Enphase trades at 109x. While stock price is a rather bad indicator of value, it does create a real-time metric of where someone is willing to buy and someone is willing to sell. When it comes to oil and gas companies, the sentiment is bad. When folks like Jim Cramer comes out and says they are bad investments, it doesn’t help create comfort. Warren Buffet says that if you’re not comfortable owning a stock for 10 years, you shouldn’t own it for 10 minutes. So while Blackrock raised their ownership levels in several solar companies in the past few weeks, you have to ask yourself what’s ahead for the oil majors.
Safe And Predictable Solar. Fitch found that 86% of solar project performed to their P50 forecast. At the end of the day the modularity and simplicity of solar matched with the predictability of the sunrise to sunset timing makes solar an incredibly secure asset. As investors are trying to drive down the price of solar equity investments which are largely still double that of mortgages, developers are trying other ways to squeeze more out of the solar panel. I expect Solaredge to announce some initial traction with utility scale projects during their earnings call in a few weeks. This comes as some projects appear to be using optimizers on the solar farms when they’ve traditionally been used on residential installations. Of course, solar output can also be insured against through innovative financial products like the solar revenue put by kWh Analytics.
Definition Of Insanity. Is doing the same thing over and over again. The USITC published its review of the 201 tariffs which found increases of cell imports in light of the tariffs placed on them while module assembly in the US increased over the past few years. Tariffs are obviously the most self-imposed headwind to solar in the US and the job creation that would come with removing all 5 levels of tariffs impacting our industry. That being said, it’s time to take a different political approach with this White House. Trump doesn’t want to work together, he wants credit and praise. So let’s do that, let’s credit him with the module assembly factories in Georgia, Alabama and Florida thanks to his 201 tariff and then praise him for reviewing the anti-dumping tariffs that are hurting further growth of jobs. I don’t know if it would work, but when in Rome…
- Axios: There’s more oil and gas than ever — and the industry is tanking
- Greentech Media: Fitch – Solar Projects Much More Reliable Performers Than Wind Farms
- PV-Tech: Trump solar tariffs failing to kickstart US upstream turnaround, review finds
- Utility Dive: ChargePoint commits $1B to expand EV charging as Ocasio-Cortez, others unveil bills for a national network
- Rocky Mountain Institute: Britain’s Ban on Gasoline and Diesel Cars Is a Game Changer for EVs
- EDF: These 4 trends prove electric trucks and buses are revving up
Opinion
Best, Yann
The post This is your SolarWakeup for February 11th, 2020 appeared first on SolarWakeup.com.
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