Election Day Changeup, A Deep Dive. It’s election day, so let’s skip the solar talk. We’ll get back to the regularly scheduled programming tomorrow. As you know, I am back to living in my home state of Florida. I’ve lived here for the better part of 30 years, run for office here, lobbied in Tallahassee and generally been close to the politics. Florida was not always great at elections, but now the State and it’s 67 supervisors of elections do a good job managing early voting (thank you Governor Crist) and getting the total early tabulations out very quickly. This means that at when polls close (most at 7pm, except for the central time zone counties in the Panhandle), the early voting results are released online. Some results will be available well before 8pm eastern. Florida is the gateway to the White House, it creates or eliminates paths to 270 for both parties. Suffice it to say, anything can happen here and while you can’t call the general election based on Florida’s results it will give you major indication. This is what I am looking at on election night, you can join my group therapy by following me on twitter @yannbrandt
Sumter County, America’s Village. In 2000, Tim Russert famously said, “Florida, Florida, Florida.” For me, it’s “Seniors, seniors, seniors” this year. No better place to watch this retired, golf cart demographic vote than in Sumter County. You have to be 55 to live in the Villages and the most sacred thing besides the golf cart is your golf game. Politics and Trump has caused foursomes to split up and end friendships. 83 thousand have already voted, almost 10% more than in all of 2016. So, early tonight, you will get the Sumter data dump and see if the seniors, largely white, are sticking by Trump. Trump won this County by 39% in 2016 and Rick Scott by a few points more. If Trump comes in under 63% with higher turnout, it’s going to be a long night for Trump. The shy Biden voter may make an appearance in the vote tally.
Duval, Not Just Jaguars. It’s been 40 years since a democratic contender for President has won this County which includes Jacksonville. Today, that changes, Clinton missed out on this by just 1.4%. It’s expected that Biden takes it by a point but insiders think that the electorate is quietly changing, like the addition of Jinko’s module plant which sits here, and could expand the lead to north of 3%. Duval has 664k registered voters and the early vote is already at 92% of 2016.
Seminole, The Orlando Expansion. To the Northeast of Orlando sits Seminole County, a growing suburb of the region. It was a nearly 50/50 County in 2016, just 3500 votes separate Clinton from Trump. A State Senate race has my attention here, a 4 term, popular state house member is running for the state senate seat and polling has him down by 8 points. If that’s true, it could be an early I-4 indicator of the Puerto Rican vote.
Pinellas, Follow The Governor. St Petersburg is the gulf front town turning into a city across the bay from Tampa. It is represented by former Governor Crist, a real solar champion, who won that race by a few points last election. His latest polling has him up by 17 points, so let’s give that a haircut because it sounds too good. Trump won this County by 1.1% so you can imagine the possibility of a major take back of votes in this growing area.
Broward, Because It’s My Home. Broward has registered more early votes than the total turnout in 2016. This is the most democratic County in Florida and a big turnout is a great sign, especially with the soft polling Biden has seen with the Cuban vote in Miami. Broward voters also include 347k NPAs (no party affiliation) that could signal a major independent shift towards Biden. There’s a reason that Obama, Biden and Harris have been camping out in town, they know winning Broward by more than 350k votes could be the ballgame.
We Ain’t Got Mountains. The reason we’re all skeptical about Florida polling is that Florida has no mountains, cliffs or even hills, therefore landslides don’t exist. We’re looking for a point off the senior vote, an extra point from NPAs and bigger turnout from dems. That happens, Biden wins Florida. Rick Scott won by 10,000 votes and he’s the junior Senator. The Sunshine State is here for your entertainment and tomorrow, we shall not disappoint. In the meantime, I’m here for you because if it’s 7am eastern, it’s time for SolarWakeup. Go Vote and conquer!
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Opinion
Best, Yann
The post This is your SolarWakeup for November 3rd, 2020 appeared first on SolarWakeup.com.
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