Thứ Hai, 12 tháng 8, 2019

This is your SolarWakeup for August 12th, 2019

Save The Planet By Making Money. It’s a fact checking day. We start with Michael Moore’s takedown of the capitalism inside the alternative energy industry. I haven’t seen the movie but I can imagine it involves a bit of wall street’s involvement in project financing, corporations buying little companies and cutting overhead, and other things that go into the world of competing with monopolies in order to save the planet. One of the takeaways is probably going to be that making money shouldn’t be the goal, but if we are going to save the planet then we need financial sustainability. 


No Credit, No Future. PG&E said in its latest restructuring plan that it would not touch the existing PPAs on the solar projects. That’s great news and PG&E is spinning it as an act of goodwill. This is an act over survival. If they were to renegotiate those deals, every future solar project would increase in cost, a cost that consumers would have to pay for. PG&E would be hard pressed to explain to legislators that bankruptcy meant a more expensive path to 100% RE. 


Post-PPA Assumptions. Newsflash. Every solar project has a healthy post-PPA assumption. Do you really think that those 15 year PURPA deals in North Carolina were homeruns? They were base hits even when you include the standard Ventyx price curve and added some financial engineering to them. Look at the resi lease companies, they all include some layer of lease renewals to the deal. The logic is that the interconnection continues in perpetuity and therefore the deal has long term value as long as you have site control. This isn’t new and it has always been necessary. 


Wrong Target. This is how much energy storage is going to have to cost in order to get to 100% RE is the wrong analysis. They key is what adder to a solar or wind PPA do you need to create enough dispatch ability in the local network. You don’t need 24 hours of energy storage, the generating asset can’t keep those batteries full. We are already well below 2 cents per kWh to give a ton of flexibility to operators and soon we’ll be at under a penny per kWh. 


Still A Problem. The San Jose CCA signed a massive solar plus storage deal, which is great to see. There is still a massive disconnect which costs time and money between solar projects and off takers. This problem is even bigger in the corporate off take world where they have to find the structure, analyze the price that they can afford and then find the solar project to match. That’s a gap that needs to be fixed. 


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Opinion

Have a great day!

Yann

The post This is your SolarWakeup for August 12th, 2019 appeared first on SolarWakeup.com.


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