Solar panel demand expected to reach 125.5 GW in 2019, TrendForce says

According to the Taiwanese market research company, PV panel demand will increase by 16% over 2018 shipments. TrendForce also believes this growth trend will continue in 2020.

EnergyTrend, a division of Taiwanese market reseach company TrendForce, asserts that solar module demand will reach approximately 125.5 GW this year. If actualized, this would represent a 16% increase compared to modules shipped in 2018 and this growth trend. The company states that it expects this type of growth to continue into next year.

With the number of GW solar markets said to increase year-over-year from last year’s 16 countries to 21 in 2019, panel demand is expected to become more geographically diversified, the Taiwanese analysts added, stressing that this dispersion itself is one of main reasons for this year’s growth. “Markets are popping up all over the world,” EnergyTrend affirmed.

“Clients will slightly reduce pull-ins for Q3, but this is expected to be a temporary state of rest for the market,” the analysts further explained. According to preliminary figures, Chinese manufacturers shipped around 28.5 GW of panels to foreign markets from January to May 2019, thus almost doubling the results of the same period of 2018, in which shipments to overseas markets reached 14.6 GW.

More growth coming from Europe

PV panel demand is expected to almost double in Europe from last years’ 11.9 GW to a whopping 21.8 GW in 2019. “The removal of European Minimum Import Price (MIP) trade barriers opened up a new export channel for Chinese suppliers impacted by China’s 531 New Policy,” TrendForce experts wrote. They also attribute this year’s projected European increasing demand to the Paris Agreement. As a result of these two factors combined, the analysts expect demand with grow by a further 10% to 24 GW in 2020.

South America, the Middle East, and Africa, along with other unspecified emerging regions, are looking to have at least 2-3 countries with GW-scale markets this year.

In another report released in January, Trendforce said that the effects of the 5/31 policy shift in China were less severe than expected, and that global installed PV capacity for 2019 would reach around 111 GW. In prior figures, the EU was highlighted as one of the fast growing markets for 2019, projecting a year-over-year growth rate of more than 50%. China and the United States will remain the first and second largest markets this year, followed by India and Japan.

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